[FYI] Expectations of a Closed Environment

["Axel H Horns" <axel.h.horns@gmx.net>]

<http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/cmusings/2004/02/04#a590>

Expectations of a Closed Environment

One commenter questioned my statement: "How will people become 
accustomed to a digital world in which you have to rebuy all of your 
software players and music catalog whenever a better format, player, 
or service comes out?"  Yes, people have had to shift formats over 
time, but I think there are three countervailing factors at work here 
 
1.  First, the old barriers don't apply in the same way now.  Bits 
are bits.  You can't upgrade a tape player to play CDs.  You can 
(theoretically) upgrade the firmware on your MP3/CD player to also 
play AAC.  You can't turn your tape into a CD.  You can 
(theoretically) convert your MP3 into AAC to play it on a compatible 
player.  

2.  That said, I think people will only tolerate circumstances in 
which they actually get an improved sound quality, like moving from 
tape to CD.  Sure, if a new codec came around that sounded a lot 
better than MP3, people might rebuy their entire catalog.  But, 
unlike in the analog world, they wouldn't necessarily have to do so 
to make use of a new player - they wouldn't have to have one player 
for MP3 and one for New-Codec - they wouldn't have to choose between 
Beta and VHS.  

3.  Given that people are used to a world in which MP3 is ubiquitous, 
there is little reason for them to shift laterally to a codec linked 
to a proprietary DRM format.  I don't see people becoming accustomed 
to the walls between iTunes, Real, and WMA-based services and 
players.  

Posted by Derek Slater on 2/4/04; 12:22:43 AM from the General news 
dept. #  



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