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Risikoabschätzung P2P Filesharing



http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=101515&cid=8652435

Re:Good odds, keep sharing! (Score:4, Insightful) 
by panaceaa (205396)  on 4:20 24th March, 2004 (#8652435) 
(http://slashdot.org/) 

Given your numbers an illegal file sharer can calculate their monthly 
financial risk from RIAA lawsuits.

Your numbers are:
Time (T)=8 months
Probability (P)=1/25290
Cost (C)=3000

With monthly financial risk = (P*C)/T, if each month you put away 1.483 cents, 
you would on average have enough money to pay your settlement fees by the 
time you were sued.

Now assume that the RIAA gets more aggressive and settles less, and through 
the courts gets a $1 million verdict in 100% of the people it sues (1977 
people / 8 months). The monthly financial risk then is $4.94 a month.

So even if your punishment is $1 million, the financial risk of getting sued 
is less than any online music service with a monthly fee. It's also less than 
5 songs on iTunes a month, which probably isn't nearly as many songs as Kazaa 
users download. Why does the RIAA think their legal efforts will convince 
people with such a low financial risk?

And here's an interesting twist -- why doesn't an insurance company insure 
people against RIAA lawsuits for $10/mo so they can download as much as they 
want on Kazaa? Isn't this similar to what Redhat is doing to protect its 
customers from SCO? I'd much rather pay $10/mo to download whatever I want 
without risk of being sued than pay the same money to MusicMatch for their 
inferior service. And if everyone did the same, peer-to-peer services would 
blossom again with tons of quality content from all genres imaginable.

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