FITUG e.V.
Förderverein Informationstechnik und Gesellschaft
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------- Forwarded message follows ------- Date sent: Fri, 17 Aug 2001 08:39:32 -0400 To: Digital Bearer Settlement List <dbs@philodox.com>, dcsb@ai.mit.edu, cryptography@wasabisystems.com From: "R. A. Hettinga" <rah@shipwright.com> Subject: <nettime> PP2P: Massively Distributed Microcrime? (edited highlights)
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To: NETTIME-L@bbs.thing.net From: richard barbrook <richard@hrc.wmin.ac.uk> Subject: <nettime> PP2P: Massively Distributed Microcrime? (edited highlights) Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2001 21:52:03 +0100 (BST) Sender: nettime-l-request@bbs.thing.net Reply-To: richard barbrook <richard@hrc.wmin.ac.uk>
PP2P: Massively Distributed Microcrime?
Gartner, Inc. Strategic Planning, SPA-13-7605 N. Jones Research Note 9 July 2001
Personal peer-to-peer applications will entertain and inform individuals but pose new risks to owners of intellectual property.
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Personal P2P (PP2P) - The Next Step.
During the next decade, we will see mass adoption of personal computing devices, such as super phones, personal digital assistants (PDAs), toys and e-books.
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The opportunity and challenge arise when individuals can install personal P2P applications on their personal platforms. Not only will adjacent devices be able to communicate, but a sufficient density of PP2P devices in a region will allow devices to contact with others outside their direct networking range by using intermediate devices to forward messages, much as the Internet does today...
Potential applications include:
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* Media Piracy. A P2P application running on personal devices could distribute pirated media widely and quickly in places containing a high density of potential recipients, such as schools and clubs. The music industry was scared by Napster, but at least it knew who it could sue. PP2P applications provide nobody to sue and no single point at which to intercept or prevent such activity.
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Inhibitors will include:
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* Vendors or governments might be pressured by vested interests - such as the music industry - to apply some form of PP2P controls at the device level; however, we forecast that this will not prove successful (0.8 probability) Overall, we do not expect that such factors will prevent PP2P systems from becoming a major technical and social trend.
Who will create and use PP2P applications?
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The first adopters are likely to be technically adept affluent professionals, followed by teenagers, the latter probably driven by applications such as dating, messaging and media piracy.
Who wins, and who loses?
The winners will include individuals, who will gain new ways to interact, share information and play games. Other winners will include organizations that can profit from communicating with groups of adjacent individuals. The losers will include organizations that might benefit from controlling, monitoring and intercepting communications - such as law enforcement agencies and owners of small to midsize units of intellectual property. The music industry, in particular, will be exposed to greater piracy risks with fewer opportunities for control. It seems likely that systems such as PP2P will make it impossible to police copying of media, forcing intellectual property owners to concentrate on encryption, rather than prevention.
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